A classified intelligence assessment sent to Secretary of State Marco Rubio on 23 October warns that Iran has “substantially increased” its efforts to target American diplomats and officials, with lethal plots now reaching what the document describes as “advanced stages.” The memo, authored by Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton and copied to CIA Director John Ratcliffe, has been confirmed as authentic by US officials. It represents one of the more direct and unambiguous warnings to emerge from the American intelligence community regarding Iranian intent to harm US personnel abroad.
Clayton’s language in the memo is unsparing. “The lethal plotting efforts by the Iranians against US citizens have reached advanced stages in both the Middle East and certain other countries,” he wrote, offering to downgrade as much sensitive intelligence as possible so that Rubio could share it more widely with personnel potentially at risk. The memo does not name specific targets, identify countries outside the Middle East, or describe the precise nature of the plots. What it does confirm is that the underlying intelligence had already been shared with senior State Department officials before the document was even written.
The New York Times, which also reported on the memo, cited unnamed US officials as saying that threats to American officials — including ambassadors — had been assessed in recent weeks, and that Iran had identified potential targets in Europe. Some intelligence further indicates that Iranian operatives may already be active within the United States itself. That last detail, if accurate, marks a meaningful escalation in the geographic scope of Iran’s ambitions, moving well beyond the Middle Eastern theatre where such activity has historically been concentrated.
The intelligence assessment is one of the principal reasons the State Department has begun drawing down personnel at several American embassies across the region. The department ordered the departure of non-emergency staff and all family members from the US Embassy in Riyadh and consulates in Jeddah and Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, citing Houthi escalations as the immediate trigger. Simultaneously, the US has been quietly adjusting staffing caps at multiple other missions, including those in Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Lebanon. The embassies in the UAE, Lebanon, Qatar, and Jordan remain open under restricted operations, though personnel there have not been formally ordered to leave.
A US official explained the calculus to CNN with notable directness: “When it comes to our staffing at embassies, we constantly evaluate new information about the security environment. The threat of Houthi attacks and of Iranian terror plots targeting US officials are informing our decisions on staffing adjustments for embassies on RO Status in the region.” The Iran-backed Houthi rebels, who control much of Yemen, have been blamed for escalating attacks, and officials now fear that violence could spread beyond Saudi Arabia to other countries in the region.
The broader strategic context compounds the urgency. President Trump, speaking at a rally in Florida, suggested further military action remained a live option, referencing what he called “Operation Epic Fury” and warning that Iran would face renewed pressure unless it agreed to a deal. “If they’re smart, they will just say, ‘Let’s get down to business,'” Trump said, “but I doubt they will do that because perhaps they’re not smart.” The prospect of renewed US and Israeli military operations against Iran adds a further layer of volatility to an already precarious regional environment. Iran has not responded publicly to the intelligence memo or the accusations it contains.
For the diplomats and their families now departing posts across the Middle East, the disruption carries a particular sting. Many had only recently returned to their assignments after being ordered out during the height of the Iran war, and officials have described the renewed departures as a frustrating and chaotic déjà vu. The episode illustrates, with some force, how fragile diplomatic presence in the region remains — and how quickly institutional stability can unravel when intelligence assessments shift from cautionary to urgent.